Crisis is inevitable, but disaster doesn’t have to be

In 2010, both Chile and Haiti experienced intense earthquakes. While Chile’s was as strong as 8.8 points on the Richter scale, Haiti’s reached 7.0 points. Despite Chile’s earthquake being 500 times stronger, it suffered 521 casualties, while Haiti tragically suffered more than 315,000.

There are obvious differences in GDP per capita and state capacity between both countries. But research shows that one of the main factors explaining the different impacts of these earthquakes was the regulatory framework that exists in each country. After experiencing a devastating earthquake in 1962 (the strongest ever recorded in world history), Chile tightened its construction standards and regulatory system to avoid future human losses. As this dramatic example highlights, when we draw lessons from past disruptions, we can plan to prevent and mitigate future impacts.

We live in a world characterized by continuous disruptions. Natural disasters, such as earthquakes, hurricanes, and flooding; health crises, such as the Covid-19 pandemic; and social conflicts impact the normal functioning of societies, including education systems. And the pace, frequency, and duration of such crises are increasing. Forced migration due to climate events, conflict, food insecurity, and more, has significantly increased in the past decade. The number of people forced to flee has doubled over the past decade, and the 120 million people now displaced represent 1.5% of the global population.

When a crisis hits, school communities and buildings are destroyed, and teachers and students are displaced. The next generation sees its future shatter in an instant. Research shows that the most negatively affected students are those living in poverty, in rural areas, with disabilities and special needs, living as forcibly displaced populations, or belonging to ethnic minorities and discriminated communities.

This is seen not only in natural disasters but also in the consequences of man-made conflicts. In Gaza, more than 87.7% of school buildings have been destroyed with more than 6,000 students and 300 teachers killed. All schools have been closed for more than a year. As Professor Sultan Barakat puts it, these attacks have been both strategic and devastating, leaving future generations without the essential access to education that could help rebuild their lives and undermining long-term societal resilience.

Global and national systems are struggling to cope with the scale of crises

There is an urgent need to prevent or mitigate the impact of future shocks. We must develop the capacity to anticipate, understand and analyze, resist, act on, adapt, and transform education systems to better face future disruptions. In other words, we must promote resilience, understood as “the capacity of an education system to absorb, resist, and adapt to disturbances while ensuring the continuity of its vital functions.”

Resilience also means the ability to actively defend fundamental rights, including the right to education. Without such safeguards, the resilience of education systems can be severely compromised, deepening the long-term impact of crises.

To do that, we need “continuous adaptation and proactive anticipation of changing circumstances.” This needs to happen at all levels: micro (students, families, and schools), meso (territory, programs, and policies), and macro (structural and regulatory systems).

A holistic approach can strengthen systems against known and unknown shocks

Currently, there is an array of approaches to plan towards resilience, including Disaster Risk Reduction frameworks, Crisis-Sensitive Educational Planning, protecting education from attack, and Climate-Resilient Education. These and other approaches must include a focus on gender equality and social inclusion, to protect the most vulnerable students. In fact, a review by the International Development Research Centre and the Global Partnership for Education through their joint Knowledge and Innovation Exchange (IDRC-GPE KIX) found that “an education system which is not equitable and inclusive cannot be resilient when only the most privileged can access education and learn.”

Based on its review, IDRC-GPE KIX has developed a new holistic, five-part framework. It covers:

1. Strengthening education systems and addressing their current vulnerabilities
2. Anticipating both known and unknown possible shocks, through better data and foresight
3. Planning different courses of action to address contingencies
4. Responding and recovering from disruptions, through short, medium, and long-term strategies
5. Preventing and mitigating future disruptions and shocks, through strengthening and consistently applying policies and programs to protect education; investing in the link between education and peacebuilding, education for sustainable development, community strengthening, and adequately adapted infrastructure.

Whichever approach we adopt, we need strong data and knowledge-sharing

We need a better understanding of possible future disruptions, the magnitude and types of impacts generated in general and in specific populations, and existing policies around the world to prevent and mitigate different impacts.

To do that, we need to promote strong national and regional ecosystems of research, development, and innovation. Through these, pertinent knowledge and contextualized innovations can be generated, synthesized, disseminated, and made available for use by governments and local education communities.

Likewise, we need robust education management information systems in place to have accurate data, diagnosis, and continuous monitoring capacity that supports the decision-making process.

It is also critical to view these approaches through an equity lens

Many vulnerable children are excluded from national systems. Some are forced to attend parallel schools because of their legal status as refugees. Others are deprioritized due to social, economic, or political constraints. Applying system-level thinking means considering the most marginalized first, in ways that can then benefit all children, at scale. 

A ‘resilience capacities’ approach means fully understanding the “conditions, abilities, assets, strategies, networks, and relationships… that help protect learning and well-being outcomes in the face of shocks and stressors.”  For vulnerable populations, that must include a solid understanding of the political economy, engagement, and needs of communities, teachers, and students. Only then can interventions meaningfully impact their lives, and engage them to lead and create responses which will best serve them. 

Ultimately, safe access to education needs to be protected

In times of war, international humanitarian law protects education — students, teachers, and schools. It applies to all states regardless of geopolitical significance, and they should respect and comply with international legal measures.

As well as preparedness and mitigation, we need to better measure resilience

It’s essential to delivering at scale. Research shows that crises impact school attendance, enrolment, and learning outcomes over the long term. Refugee children, for example, are twice as likely as non-refugees to be out of school, and are likely to miss out on an average of four years of education due to displacement. This has multi-generational consequences on education access and associated health and economic benefits.

Tracking this impact means investing in core measurements around attendance, retention, and drop-out; foundational literacy and numeracy, social-emotional well-being; and school-level closures and operational success. Being able to track these metrics, even during a time of crisis, means that a resilient system can also plan for rapid, tailored action when schools are closed or children are unable to attend or are not learning.

Latin America and the Caribbean are making progress in measuring resilience

SUMMA, together with OECS, GRADE, GPE KIX, and IDRC, have been working to provide data and practical research to help countries develop policies to address disruptions.

The Teachers’ Voice is an interesting example of this. It was a regional survey applied in 21 countries, with responses from more than 200,000 teachers. It allowed governments to monitor and address the disruption generated on schools by Covid-19, as it occurred.

Another example is Adapt-Ed, a new regional observatory for resilient education systems. It aims to create a shared understanding of what resilience in education means, share effective practices and policies, and use different methods to anticipate and prepare for potential challenges in the future.

We’ll need consistent, long-term international cooperation to succeed

International cooperation is essential for creating effective systems of governance that help stakeholders work better together to share data, innovations, and knowledge; create public benefits; and direct resources toward those who need them most. When it comes to supporting the most vulnerable, it is critical to keep in mind that building resilient education systems needs long-term consistency.  Building strong data and tracking mechanisms, and learning from what works, means that solutions can be delivered at scale and on time, mitigating serious risks to children and communities.

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Dr Javier González
Director, SUMMA

Dr Becky Telford
Chief, Education Section, UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency

Professor Sultan Barakat
Professor of Public Policy, Hamad Bin Khalifa University